Favorites vs Underdogs in Sports Betting
Every game has a team the market expects to win and a team it expects to lose. The price tells you how strongly, and it also tells you how often a bet must win to break even.
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What makes a favorite and an underdog
The favorite is the team the sportsbook expects to win. It carries a minus price on the moneyline, like -200, and it gives points on the spread. The underdog is the other team. It carries a plus price, like +150, and it receives points.
A favorite price shows how much you risk to win 100. A -200 bet risks 200 to win 100. An underdog price shows how much you win on a 100 bet. A +150 bet risks 100 to win 150.
The break-even win rate
Every price has a win rate where a bettor neither makes nor loses money over time. For +150, divide 100 by 250 (the 100 risked plus the 150 won). That is 0.40, or 40%. For -200, divide 200 by 300. That is 0.667, or 66.7%.
So a +150 underdog needs to win 40 times in 100 to break even, and a -200 favorite needs to win about 67 times in 100. These numbers ignore the sportsbook's fee, which pushes the real break-even a little higher on both sides.
Underdogs win outright more than people feel
A +150 underdog is expected to win roughly 4 games in 10. That is a lot of wins for a team called the underdog. Fans remember the big favorite that lost, but they often forget how regularly underdogs win.
Neither side is automatically better. Favorites win more often but pay less. Underdogs win less often but pay more. Whether a price is fair depends on the game.
- Baseball and hockey have many upsets because one team rarely dominates.
- Basketball favorites win more often because scoring is high and results are steadier.
- Football has fewer games, so one upset can look very large.
Before you bet either side
Read the price, work out the break-even rate, and ask whether that rate seems fair for the game. Compare prices at more than one book when you can.
Bets can lose. Bettors must be 21 or older where betting is legal. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Questions
Is it better to bet favorites or underdogs?
Neither is better by default. Prices are set so both sides cost about the same over time, after the sportsbook's fee.
How often does a +150 underdog need to win?
40% of the time to break even, before the sportsbook's fee. That is 4 wins in 10 tries.
Why do favorites pay less?
Because they win more often. A smaller payout on a likelier result balances a bigger payout on a less likely one.
More guides
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